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Putin's premature death
War-adjacent content millers are weary of uncertainty. They continue to ask stupid questions. When will the war end? Where will the new border of Russia be? When will Putin be deposed? How much time does the Russian empire have left?
Ukraine’s political leaders are increasingly dissatisfied and angry. They are tired of making inspirational video clips. It’s impossible to analyze or predict what Putin will do next. They are forced to rely on pep talks about the future.
The outcome of the war today depends on western arms supplies to Ukraine. Without them, Ukraine will be erased, literally, blown to smithereens. Limited western supplies may turn the conflict into a protracted war, while unlimited supplies will allow Ukraine to start retaking areas in some places along the 2,400-kilometer long front line.
We can rule out the first option, because the collective west, led by Uncle Joe, is giving Ukraine guns. The third scenario is unlikely, unless/until Russia commits more gruesome barbaric acts resulting in the sudden deaths of hundreds, maybe thousands, maybe tens of thousands, of innocent civilians. Picture, for example, the accidental shelling of Zaporizhia’s nuclear power reactor. So, we’re left with the second option: a protracted war.
Moderate, measured deliveries of weapons to Ukraine may prevent a strategic offensive operation without Russia declaring all-out mobilization and declaring full-scale war. American generals say that’s the most likely scenario, but we don’t trust them or their British counterparts.
Looking on the bright side, further major territorial gains in Ukraine are unlikely this summer. The contact line is more or less as long as it was two months ago — roughly the distance from Warsaw to Barcelona.
Counter-offensive operations to re-take southern areas which Russia seeks to absorb into a Novorossiya statelet could take months, maybe years. Meanwhile, leaders of the three richest countries in Europe will continue to pressure Ukraine to recognize the current status quo and declare a ceasefire.
That means the center of gravity of the bloody mess, at least for the rest of the summer, will shift to the capital, which is already a hub for cheap watermelons, mercenaries, refugees and drug addicts.
And jornoists, which brings me to yesterday’s news about the creation of the Ukraine bureau of The New York Times. The announcement comes two months after The Washington Post did the same thing. I’m not sure about CNN. Last time I checked, they working out of a coffee shop closer to Poland.
Andy is already famous in Ukraine for his previous botched reports about the country from Moscow. So is Iuliia, whose contributions to The New York Times before becoming Z’s spokeswoman raised eyebrows. She currently contributes op-eds to The Washington Post. No one knows exactly what her role is at the Kyiv Post, which doesn’t list her on its masthead, not that it matters. Maybe she’s just a contributor.