Day 1465
I stumbled completely by accident—and let me emphasize the completely by accident part—on a podcast with Ed and Adam the other day that reminded me of Tootsie Club1.
The preparatory channel is documented, the aircraft evidence is verified, the cover story has multiple demonstrated inconsistencies, both Ukraine and Russia denied using identical language on the same day, and the personnel changes that followed trace a consistent line. The coincidences are not just geometric. They have tail numbers2.
Occam’s razor cuts cleanly here.
The innocent version, Z’s, requires we believe in approximately eleven simultaneous coincidences involving identical aircraft, identical government denials, a Valdai Club fixer, and a series of personnel changes that all moved in the same direction within six months of each other.
As we pointed out at the bar, the razor doesn't prove the Oman meeting happened. It says: the hypothesis that requires the fewest coincidences is the one where it did. Everything else …
