Day 1562

Unorthogonal

Last week Edward Luce, writing in the Financial Times, offered a diagnosis: both Putin and Trump gambled on weak adversaries, assumed quick victories, and have instead produced case studies in geopolitical self-harm. This week Jack Watling, in Foreign Affairs, adds the granular military argument — Russian combat performance is waning, Ukrainian tactical proficiency is quietly improving, and a cease-fire has moved from fantasy to realistic possibility.

The arguments are reasonable. They also are incomplete.

Its hidden assumption is that people eventually submit to reality. Reality arrives, presents its credentials, and is admitted indoors. The mistake lies in believing this always happens.

Consider Iran.

Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei is fifty-six years old. He did not inherit an ordinary state. He inherited an idea disguised as a state. The Islamic Republic is often described as a government with a foreign policy. In truth it resembles a foreign policy that acquired a government for administr…