Day 18
Russia has lost the war, and the map above is misleading. The same goes for dozens of forecasts and studies published by Institute for the Study of War and Critical Threats over the six months leading up to the invasion. Both 501© think tanks are the brainchildren of Fred, who probably means well, but doesn’t have a clue.
Looking on the positive side, had it not been for Fred’s page at the American Enterprise Institute, I wouldn’t have reminisced about Michael Solo, a Russian emigre and friend of the family who taught military history at West Point before Fred arrived there. It was Fred’s chit chat with Jordan Peterson, titled “Ukraine Update,” that led me to take a closer look at AEI’s/ISW’s reports and maps.
Beltway bullshit about off-ramps for Russia abounds. I usually pay more attention to what Russians are saying.
Experts in the West who are trying to figure out why Fred’s assessments have been consistently flawed should put on thinking caps. Unfortunately, many do not even speak or understand Russian or Ukrainian.
In a nutshell, Putin is and remains an irrational actor who is less well-grounded in reality than most world leaders. “Bounded rationality” is irrelevant for explaining the Russian leader’s decisions or actions. Rinse, repeat.