Day 28
Nathan’s map
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The two pink blobs to the West and East of Kyiv interest me the most.
Fred’s map.
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Jerome’s map.
Steel hedgehogs galore
Biden and European leaders say they're doing enough to sustain Ukraine's war effort, and not so much as to provoke Putin to escalate. They also think they're doing enough to satisfy public opinion without sacrificing American lives. These assumptions are not going to save the lives of Ukrainians and undermine Putin, so western leaders should say less and do more, quickly.
All kinds of technological disasters are possible, ranging from out-of-control brush fires in the Chornobyl exclusion zone to Russia-occupied nuclear power plant meltdowns and chemical plant leaks, not to mention famine, poisoned water supplies and bird-borne sicknesses.
We assume Tiger Team has gamed in débâcle, both natural and man-made.
Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar tells us here what information we should not be sharing publicly. It’s the same Hanna who, along with Ze, instructed us in January not to look up.
We probably won’t have to wait until May for the denouement of the war. Putin will be forced to decide in the coming weeks whether to go all-in on destroying Ukraine or start talks on debt restructuring.
Leonid Radzikhovsky in Moscow thinks it will take at least two months before ordinary Russians start scratching their heads and rubbing their bellies. That sounds about right.