Day 417
Looking at the effect of the floods, it’s clear we were unbelievably lucky compared to others in Brovary — there were emergency rescues in nearby towns. Some people are still without running water or electricity, and damage to roads, homes and businesses will take months to dry up.
Right up the road across the highway, the incredibly accommodating Fisherman’s Market had finished renovating their yard just in time to see the work destroyed, along with angling gear, appliances and much else, including live bait. Their earthen pavillion – and these are fastidiously tidy marketeers – is now a football field of mud puddles littered with ruined stalls and waterlogged merchandise.
Later on, I ran to the newly renovated River Port building (Київський річковий порт та вокзал) to rejuvenate in the sweet electric glow of academia (er, to check on American University’s renovation plans).
I passed a convoy heading back in the direction I came from: dozens of emergency response vehicles, some carrying bulldozers, some with rubber boats and emergency crews. Red truck after red truck, lights flashing.
On the way back, right behind me on the sidewalk, was one of the ubiquitous, seemingly disposable Kia Sportages – standard issue to the young, inbred white male – that swarm the roads here, its driver honking, cursing, gesticulating for me to get out of the way.
Okay so here’s what I worked on over the weekend, not that you asked: a sort of annual report and forecast designed to allow people to easily understand our macroeconomic mess.
Results 2022
GDP. According to the most reliable estimates, the decline in Ukraine's dollar GDP in 2022 reached 21.3% ($158 vs. $200.8 billion in 2021). At the same time, the private sector of the economy (in particular, sectors whose income this year was supported by government spending on external financing from allied countries) more than halved, from $132 billion to $53 billion (-60%).
According to data published by the Ministry of Economy, the fall in Ukraine's real GDP in 2022 is estimated at 30.4% (+/- 2%). The National Bank assessed the consequences of shelling of energy infrastructure in November-December - a 4% loss in real GDP growth in Q4 2022 and a 1.3% drop year on year.
The industrial production index in 2022 against 2021 fell by 36.9%. Like GDP, at the height of the full-scale invasion of Russia in March, the slump deepened to 53.7%. However, since last summer, all sectors have shown slow but stable recovery growth.
The mining and metallurgical complex suffered the greatest losses (-71%). Agriculture fell by a third (-34%). In both cases, the key role was played by the blockade of seaports, through which up to 70% of agricultural and metallurgical products were exported.
I haven’t seen the graphics yet. Run entirely through the browser (no FTP mucky-muck), the report will offer ways to upload, amend and quickly vet detailed information about how, actually, the state of Ukraine’s economy is being presented. Eventually, it will be a B2B PHP/MySQL thing, dynamic, based on UEO’s research.