Day 622
Stephan wraps up the situation in Ukraine, concluding:
I see plain, old-fashioned human error as the main driver of events here.
In any case, it’s been a week of public relations chaos at the top of Ukraine’s government and military leadership. You get this from time to time in democracies at war, but even when you recognize it for what it is it isn’t very pretty1.
Not included in his analysis is the tragic death of Zaluzhny’s aide, who blew himself up yesterday outside of Kyiv with what he thought was a toy hand grenade2.
Horenko’s Halloween promo was an OPSEC disaster I overlooked.
When presented with competing conspiracy theories promoted by blue-ticked shitposters on X, most of whom do not understand Ukrainian or Russian, we should defer to explanations that require the fewest assumptions.
Hubris, stupidity and human error are the first to come to mind.
On the American jacket, this op-ed appearing on November 5 in The Washington Post.
I asked several friends in Kyiv if they agree. Most do not. They reminded me of this time last year, of black outs, no running water and daily bomb alerts. Ukraine might be worse off in in Washington, D.C. than last November, at least according to Jason, but it feels a lot more safe in the capital than one year ago.
And looking on the bright side — we always try to look on the bright side — Z says it would be irresponsible to hold elections this spring when his 5-year term expires.
ANALYSIS: Special Ops Amateur Hour, More Booms and Zelensky Snookers Himself. The latest musings from Stefan Korshak on Ukrainian behind-the-scenes political maneuvers and media and narrative failures (Kyiv Post, November 6, 2023)
Grenade in birthday gift kills aide to Ukraine’s top commander (The Washington Post, November 7, 2023)