We obviously are witnessing a turning point in the war Ukraine is surviving but not exactly winning. At this critical moment, the second after Russia attempted to decapitate Kyiv, the nation’s fate remains a hostage to goofball Inside the Beltway politics. But that’s been the case for, er, at least a decade, maybe two. Looking on the positive side, the only reason we haven’t been absorbed already is because our internal affairs have been reliably meddled in since, er, before independence. This might explain why some Ukrainians are nice to some Americans and nasty to others and vice versa, depending on whether you are a Trump supporter.
Both American and Ukrainian political leaders understand this and treat what is happening with all the appropriate seriousness. And if the assault on Bakhmut last year was indeed an obscure episode of tactical significance, where strategic resources were expended, then Avdiyivka today is already familiar, at least for its insignificance, because the outcome of that bloody mess isn’t likely to influence anything, strategically.
In such a situation, discord in Ukraine’s political leadership is extremely inappropriate and could become the main risk factor.
Z takes risks. But if he’s driven to quash imaginary political rivals serving in the military, driven by the fussing of cockroaches in his unshaven head, the perdimonocle he arranges could more damaging than last year’s first “meat assaults.”
Now everything is very very cold and the situation slippery, with politicians on both sides of the lake on collision courses with eachother. We cannot predict who will ultimately emerge victorious from their respective cement-headed fisticuffs. All wars pass through inflection points. Now is precisely such a moment — no less, but no more.
On the Ukraine war jacket, I liked these two: