Z’s Victory Plan did not float. Zero traction among leaders in the West.
We now know why: It's because Ukraine continues proposing chaotic solutions to complicated problems. When you work with chaotic solutions, like in computational fluid dynamics, there are typically no shortcuts to just grinding things out, one step at a time, because the equations are intrinsically complex. Ukraine’s problems are difficult to game out with AI models currently used by the boys and girls on Tiger Team advising “them.”
So when a friend calls me and says, "What's going on? How will the war end?" I just look at what the model is doing. It is collecting the inputs all the time and staying up to date, digesting instability and turbulence.
Former Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny emphasized this during his spiel at Chatham House last week.
"Don't listen to all these [military] experts. There can be no predictions in war. Only mathematics works in war. It is mathematics that calculates all this."
For an exposition of the calculations required, very little in the way of prerequisites is needed — which is not to say that proposals from Ukraine’s leaders are easy to understand. For someone who just wants to get an idea what is going on, without investing a lot of time in checking the validity of Z’s arguments, critical thinking can be ditched altogether.
It takes a model to beat a model. Once Ukraine’s model improves and starts beating Russia’s model — in hard empirical terms, with empirical results — the pink blobs on DeepState’s war maps will begin to recede slowly and the quality of life, along with longevity, will improve. Until then, chaos.
Maria and Volodymyr touched on this the other day.
Successful disruptor presidents are leaders who have significantly transformed their countries positively through unconventional policies, bold reforms or innovative approaches. Z, who peforms well in simple situations and in front of a teleprompter, fails in complicated situations, when functioning democratic institutions are required.
In the 11th year of war, Ukraine needs:
an efficient military conscription system
well-built fall-back defensive fortifications
state institutions run by competent individuals
national salvation government (throw loyalty to the leader out the window)
enough ammo, guns, missiles, drones and means to produce them
On the Team USA jacket, Uncle Joe celebrates the “Historic Decision to Leverage Russian Sovereign Assets to Support Ukraine.”