Day 982

Waves of insecurity

Photo c/o abdymok

One reason Uncle Joe decided to disinvite Z to the beano in Berlin last month is because both presidents are increasingly decoherent. So, Keir, Olaf and Emmanuel sounded off about Ukraine among themselves. Without Ukraine. We don’t know what they talked about or decided, if anything.

Außerdem scheint es ein sehr konkretes Kommunikationsproblem zu geben: Selenskyj und seine rechte Hand, Kanzleichef Jermak, sprechen in Verhandlungen mit Amerikanern oft Englisch, statt Dolmetschern Zeit zum Übersetzen zu geben. Allerdings ist Selenskyjs Englisch nur mäßig und das von Jermak ausgesprochen schlecht. Die Amerikaner, so heißt es, sind sich deshalb im direkten Kontakt mit den beiden führenden Politikern der Ukra­ine oft nicht sicher, ob sie diese richtig verstehen. Ebenso wenig können sie ermessen, ob das, was sie selbst erläutern, korrekt zur Kenntnis genommen wird. — Der onderweg des Kanzlers (Frankfurter Allgemeine, October 27, 2024)

Communication with Ukraine’s leader remains a problem at home and abroad. Saying one thing and doing another is a feature, not a bug, of ultra-competitive Ukraine-style politics. Multilingual bullshit from Z hasn’t exactly been mellifluous lately. His ad libs have produced interference effects converted to jorno rhetoric matching what appears to be his mildly deranged state of mind. In response, our unpredictable supreme commander-in-chief already induced dephasing — a lack of coherence in political messaging.

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The sacking Ukraine’s top general Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny in late 2023 started the decline. The process ended with the latter’s dismissal February 2024. Z gave no clear reason for his decision. The president’s increasing interference in military operations, along with self-aggrandizing stories about his own heroism during the Russia’s attempt to decapitate Kyiv, was played up during the months-long soap opera. Since then it’s been mostly downhill.

Z chatting up Canadian undergrads (June 22, 2022)

Zaluzhny had been arguing for more new military recruits. Z resisted, saying he wasn’t conviced Ukraine had enough money to equip, train and arms them. Z sacked Zaluzhny and his team in February 2024. Parliament belatedly passed confusing changes to laws regulating forced conscription. US House Speaker Mike dithered, and Emmuanuel floated the idea of sending in the French Legion to help.

Team USA’s Tiger Team told Ukraine at the start of the year that its job was simple: preserve national unity, increase troop strength, build defensive fall-back positions and procure/produce military stuff. The President’s Office, which de facto controls Parliament, the Cabinet of Ministers, Police, Judiciary, SBU State Security Service and Prosecutor’s Office, failed to accomplish any of these tasks. Instead, brainstorming on Bankova produced The Peace Formula, The Victory Plan, Plan B and the latest, whatever, dubbed The Action Plan (for domestic use).

Public trust in Z and the executive branch has largely evaporated, conscription rates remain low and state budget funds for defensive fortifications are missing or were misallocated. Ukraine’s western partners, meanwhile, still fail provide enough guns and ammo, perhaps fearing escalation from Putin. Ukraine’s own arms production efforts is sputtering.

Speaking in Rekjavik on Wednesday, Z attempted to instill a sense of urgency among Nordic leaders as Russian invaders swarmed Selydove and North Koreans converged on his country’s borders.

The president did not acknowledge, much less discuss, the manifold of his administration’s own shortcomings. He told them our mission this winter is to remain alive and kicking. Ukraine’s partners aren’t keeping their promises, he stressed.

Wonderful. According to UN data, since the start of the full-scale war, the population has decreased by 10 million people due to a mass exodus of refugees, a decline in the birth rate and deaths caused by military action.

Z says many refugees will return.

"Not all Ukrainians are happily welcomed abroad. This is not part of the plan to bring Ukrainians back, but there are facts. The countries and their leaders want working Ukrainians to stay there. At the same time, they are looking for ways to force non-working Ukrainians to return to Ukraine. This is also a fact. For example, there are more than 1.1 million Ukrainians in Germany today, of which at least 300,000 neither work anywhere, nor even try to find a job. There are many such people all over Europe," Z said during a meeting with the heads of territorial communities and districts of Zakarpattia.

No one believes him. They might come back, but not to bleed, work, cry and sweat, at least not until Ukraine’s politically connected self-enriching draftdodging elites do the same.

Some say Ukraine’s future depends on who wins the 2024 US Presidential Election. But neither contender in that race wants to deal with Russia’s death squads, North Korean zombies or our increasinging cantankerous leader. No one knows for sure if European leaders have been helpful enough because we are too busy thanking them for keeping Ukraine’s economy afloat. They are worried about safety, too, their own.