Prominvestbank Purgatory

All multiple possible outcomes look bad

The competition between paradigms is not the sort of battle that can be resolved by proofs. - Thomas Kuhn

If everyone had a their own personal investment adviser and they all predicted large transactions in Ukraine’s financial sector during 2021 then nobody would buy anything.

The forecast would be automatically negated by critics who say the exact opposite. It's a kind of liar's paradox for economists who think its a better idea to take an inductive approach to buying and selling assets of a country in time of war.

The economy in Ukraine, like anywhere else, is the set of ongoing arrangements market players make. The operative word is ongoing - because the situation keeps on changing. It's the arrangements and actions taken to fulfil needs. It could be barter, Donbas cash-for-coal deals on the the contact line, or it could be a villager engaged in subsistence farming who doesn't want to sell his land plot to the nearby factory that makes chicken feed.

The essence of economics is …