Day 1014

Strong political signals

A friend sent me the Thanksgiving column of a well known American conservative columnist. I read it twice.

I find myself grateful that while the national winners, the Republican Party, can fairly claim a mandate—carrying both houses of Congress and the popular vote, winning in the battleground states—it is still, yet, a modest one. The margins in Congress are real but not overwhelming, the battleground states were close, the popular vote at time of writing, with some votes still being counted, is 76,883,434 for Mr. Trump and 74,406,431 for Kamala Harris. There’s something touching and impressive in the specificity there, if you needed to be reminded that every vote counts. But what we’re looking at is a clear, close margin— 49.96% to 48.35%. Even with an ultimately insufficient presidential candidate, the Democrats got almost half the votes. They’re not over, but they’re wobbling, and the things they stand for aren’t popular and don’t deserve to be. — Peggy Noonan (The Wall Street Journal, November 27, 2024)¹

I have always amazed by the unsinkability of old conservative brands. Take, for example, William Frank Buckley Jr. and Pat Buchanon, who for years, along with Peggy, gave us the most absurd, most center-right political nonsense of last century — from the final victory of blood-and-soil democracy to 1,000 points of light on a planetary scale.

For we're a nation of community, of thousands and tens of thousands of ethnic, religious, social, business, labor union, neighborhood, regional and other organizations, all of them varied, voluntary and unique. This is America: the Knights of Columbus, the Grange, Hadassah, the Disabled American Veterans, the Order of Ahepa, the Business and Professional Women of America, the union hall, the Bible study group, LULAC {League of United Latin American Citizens}, Holy Name, a brilliant diversity spreads like stars, like a thousand points of light in a broad and peaceful sky. — George Bush (Address Accepting the Presidential Nomination at the Republican National Convention in New Orleans, August 18, 1988)

The version of liberalism Americans grew accustomed to in my lifetime is dead, dead, dead. Societies have reached the level of complexity beyond which the laws of Euclidean democracy function adequately. Under Donald, universally accepted democratic principles no longer apply and we all face the freedom versus unfreedom conundrum. Again.

Ready-made solutions to manage dangerous memes amplfied by TikTok, Twitter, Spotify, WeChat, Sina Weibo, VKontakte, et al algorithms, trolls — new technologies of mind control — are good at killing political competition as the real basis of open society². The toolkit allows any compact organized social group (a conditional minority) to kidnap the state. It’s not the end, but the start, of a new history, probably a very murky one.

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Which brings me to Z’s pivot to diplomacy blitz for ending our bloody little 11-year old war.

In fact, an invitation to join NATO is not necessary for Ukraine’s survival.

The act of political symbolism — declaring it is, over and over again, drumming the message into our heads — represents Z’s willingness to demonstrate flexibily, ostensibly to Donald, for preparing an end to hostilities. Or maybe just a sign of desperation?

c/o The Wall Street Journal (December 3, 2024)

Additionally, the message…

psychologically prepares the population to perceive the inevitable and difficult compromise with reality in such a way that we would not just accept it, but would believe that this very compromise is Z's personal victory over reality³.

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Just one year ago, during his end-of-year press conference, Z said the Commander-in-Chief and General Staff had told him it would be necessary to forcibly conscript between 450,000 to 500,000 new soldiers in 2024. The president responded that he was unconvinced this was necessary.

In January 2024, Z sacked the Commander-in-Chief and most of the General Staff. Ukraine’s military situation and morale deteriorated steadily throughout the year as a result. Today, the problem is less a lack of guns and ammo problem than a deficit of soldiers and lack of trust in the Supreme Commander-in-Chief.

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I never knew Olaf was so short.

1. America Has Much to Be Thankful For. We are a great democratic republic, we have been through a lot, and we are still the hope of the world (The Wall Street Journal, November 27, 2024)

2. TikTok’s Romanian reckoning. Regulators suspect foul play in how far-right firebrand Călin Georgescu used the Chinese-owned app to sway voters (Politico, November 29, 2024)

3. Day 1013. 1 = 2 (December 2, 2024)