Day 1055
Ukraine’s battlefield problems are only partially a result of draft age. Like the US army, Ukraine has roughly one million soldiers under arms. Today one of every ten is AWOL. US soldiers, by comparison, go absent without leave only several thousands of times each year. Usually they are punished.
Incoming National Security Adviser Mike (starting at 26.30) says Team USA needs to see Ukraine “stabilize things on the battlefield” and address “manpower issues.” He then blabs something about morale problems and the draft age and Ukraine maybe not being “all-in for democracy,” whatever that means.
Ukraine’s manpower problems began mushrooming early last year after Z dismissed Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny without cause. Zaluzhny had urged Z repeatedly to mobilize and train hundreds of thousands more recruits.
Z, however, demurred.
As manpower problems grew more obvious and acute, Z began touting new and mostly imaginary reserve brigades. He blamed unfulfilled promises by partners to provide weapons for delaying their deployment.
Much has been written about Ukraine’s mobilization failures, for which Z bears full responsibility1.
Meanwhile, Mike’s boss, Donald, last week regurgitated a key Kremlin talking point.
[A] big part of the problem was Russia for many, many years, long before Putin, said, you could never have NATO involved with Ukraine. Now they've said that -- that's been like written in stone. And somewhere along the line Biden said no, they should be able to join NATO. Well, then Russia has somebody right on their doorstep and I could understand their feeling about that. — Donald January 7, 2025 press conference at Mar-a-Lago
Last time I checked, Russia’s leaders never asked for — nor were given — any formal guarantees about NATO enlargement. Ever. By anyone.
That Donald thinks so indicates he is spending too much time at the club with Paul, Elon and Tulsi2.
Why is Ukraine losing ground? Mobilization crisis and command failures exposed. Ukraine’s military problems can no longer be ignored as mobilization failures and systemic issues lead to mounting territorial losses (Euromaidan Press, January 3, 2025)
Pardoned by Trump, Manafort Is Back and Looking for Foreign Work. The president-elect’s 2016 campaign chairman, four years after receiving clemency, is testing the international market with a team of Trump-linked consultants (The New York Times, January 13, 2025)