Day 1107
Risk, ambition, power
Does Team USA have the military power to confront Russia, China, Iran and North Korea?
Does Team USA have the economic strength to retain preemminence beyond its borders?
Does Team USA have the political wherewithal to accomplish its military and political objectives1?
and
Does Team USA have the leverage to compel Vova do something he doesn’t want to do2?
Four rhetorical questions posed by former Commander-in-Chief Valery at a public forum hosted by the Ukrainian Catholic University the other day34.
The public Q&A was held as anglophone historians, military experts and analysts the world over mull what’s next for Ukraine. Niall and Stephen, who remind me a bit of my arch nemisis Samuel, are among them56.
Z didn’t mention the pause of US military assistance to, incl intelligence sharing with, Ukraine in his daily pep talk.
Z did say, however, that teams led by NSA Mike and President’s Office head Andriy would meet to discuss Donald’s quest for peace at an undisclosed location “in the near future.”
Mike served four years on active service in the US military, from 1996 to 2000. He then worked for the Pentagon and joined the National Guard. Specific details about Andriy, a lawyer in Kyiv during the same period, are not available.There were challenges in the application and development of law in Ukraine during the early 2000s, to put it mildly.
The business and political careers of both men are swampy and unflattering. Mike co-founded Metis Solutions, Inc, a defense consultancy firm that was bought by PAE (2020), which was bought by Amentum (2022), which used Metis to secure a significant contract with the U.S. Department of Treasury's Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence. The contract involves providing investigative and analytic solutions to counter financial crimes of the sort Andriy was masterminding, perpetrating and covering up during Z’s tenure as president.
Asphalt from Belarus comes to mind.
I’m on record advising readers to ignore analysts and avoid experts, at least most of them, about the war, because they are often dead wrong7. It’s always best to talk with soldiers who are doing the actual fighting and dying.
One more very red sunset.
Z is with Emmanuel and EU leaders at a defense summit in Brussels today.
Joseph has a nice op-ed about seizing Russian assets.
No, no and no.
Maybe. We’ll find out.
Z sacked Valery one year ago, then appointed him ambo to the UK.
00:00 The beginning
02:39 Crisis and leadership
10:11 Experience of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
14:55 Priorities in diplomatic work
22:43 What is the role of international alliances in the war?
28:36 Restoration of Ukraine
33:30 Who else can guarantee Ukraine's security?
45:46 On the desire to drive a tank through Moscow
52:26 On the reduction of aid from the United States
57:39 On the release of our people from captivity
1:02:08 Cooperation between Ukraine and Britain
1:07:40 How to change a safe Europe?
Think twice before committing to European boots on the ground in Ukraine. Negotiations between the warring parties are likely to set the parameters of any post-conflict deployment (The Financial Times, January 14, 2025)
Sam chatted up Niall, a historian, about realpolitik and the Ukraine mess recently. The convo annoyed me. I remember vaguely reading his essay about the Orange Revolution about a decade ago that was all wrong.
Ignore Analysts. Stay away from experts (June 22, 2022)