DNI’s wire product about Ukraine farted daily into Donald’s brain should probably be refined and not made Joe’s remit1.
The poster says: “Don’t doubt yourself… no matter what!”
While believing in yourself and not doubting yourself are closely related, they don’t mean the same thing.
Madyar’s weekly fpv report from the zero line.
In the philosophical study of logic — deductive reasoning — conclusions are based on premises. The role probability plays in thinking about evidence and how strong arguments are — how valid an argument is as a reason for believing something else — helps us discern whether Team USA will rethink its Ukraine policy.
Judging by Little Marco’s testimony, the chances of that happening are slim.
And why is Donald scooping this?
“Before I even arrive at the Oval Office, shortly after we all together win the presidency, we will have the horrible war between Russia and Ukraine settled. It will be settled. The war is going to be settled. I’ll get them both. I know Zelensky, I know Putin. It’ll be done within 24 hours, you watch.” — July 29, 2023, remarks at a campaign rally in Erie, Pennsylvania
“I’m going to do Russia, whose Economy is failing, and President Putin, a very big FAVOR. Settle now, and STOP this ridiculous War! IT’S ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE. If we don’t make a ‘deal,’ and soon, I have no other choice but to put high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States, and various other participating countries. Let’s get this war, which never would have started if I were President, over with!” — January 22, 2024, social media post
“I don’t see any way that a country in Russia’s position could allow them, just in their position, could allow them to join NATO. I don’t see that happening.” — February 14, 2025, remarks to reporters
“I hear that they’re upset about not having a seat. Well, they’ve had a seat for three years and a long time before that. This could have been settled very easily, just a half-baked negotiator could have settled this years ago without … the loss of much land, very little land, without the loss of any lives.” — February 18, 2025, remarks to reporters
“We had a very meaningful meeting in the White House today. Much was learned that could never be understood without conversation under such fire and pressure. It’s amazing what comes out through emotion, and I have determined that President Zelenskyy is not ready for Peace if America is involved, because he feels our involvement gives him a big advantage in negotiations. I don’t want advantage, I want PEACE. He disrespected the United States of America in its cherished Oval Office. He can come back when he is ready for Peace.” — February 28, 2025 social media post
“Well, I was being a little bit sarcastic when I said that [ending the war in 24 hours]. What I really mean is I’d like to get it settled and I think I’ll be successful.” — March 16, 2025, remarks to Sharyl Attkisson of Sinclair Broadcast Group
“My phone conversation today with President Putin of Russia was a very good and productive one. We agreed to an immediate Ceasefire on all Energy and Infrastructure, with an understanding that we will be working quickly to have a Complete Ceasefire and, ultimately, an END to this very horrible War between Russia and Ukraine.” — March 18, 2025, post on social media
“You could say that I was very angry, pissed off, when … Putin started getting into Zelensky’s credibility, because that’s not going in the right location … New leadership means you’re not going to have a deal for a long time.” — March 30, 2025, remarks to NBC News
“HOPEFULLY RUSSIA AMD UKRAINE WILL MAKE A DEAL THIS WEEK. BOTH WILL THEN START TO DO BIG BUSINESS WITH THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, WHICH IS THRIVING, AND MAKE A FORTUNE!” — April 20, 2025, social media post
“This is Sleepy Joe Biden’s War, not mine. It was a loser from day one, and should have never happened, and wouldn’t have happened if I were President at the time. I’m just trying to clean up the mess that was left to me by Obama and Biden, and what a mess it is. With all of that being said, there was no reason for Putin to be shooting missiles into civilian areas, cities and towns, over the last few days. It makes me think that maybe he doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along, and has to be dealt with differently, through ‘Banking’ or ‘Secondary Sanctions?’ Too many people are dying!!!” — April 26, 2025, social media post, after meeting with Zelensky in the Vatican
“I want him to stop shooting, sit down and make a deal.” — April 27, 2025, remarks to reporters
“I think we’re in a good position to settle. They want to settle, Ukraine wants to settle. … As you know, President Putin has just announced a three-day ceasefire, which doesn’t sound like much, but it’s a lot if you knew where we started from.” — May 8, 2025, remarks to reporters
“It’s very big egos involved. I tell you, big egos involved. But I think something’s going to happen. And if it doesn’t, I’d just back away and they’re going to have to keep going. Again, this was a European situation. It should have remained a European situation. … I said, when are we going to end this, Vladimir? I know him for a long time now. I said when are we going to end this bloodshed, this bloodbath, it’s a bloodbath, and I do believe he wants to end it.” — May 19, 2025, remarks to reporters
“Russia and Ukraine will immediately start negotiations toward a Ceasefire and, more importantly, an END to the War. The conditions for that will be negotiated between the two parties, as it can only be, because they know details of a negotiation that nobody else would be aware of.” — May 19, 2025, social media post
The big step change in drone warfare will come when the drones are autonomous, i.e. no human operator needed. Just launch and forget. The side that cracks that first will inevitably win the war. I just hope Ukraine gets there first.