A thin coat of snow over ice makes running less slippery.
I spent six years in the US military, the last two unvoluntarily. Towards the end of my one and only overseas tour, Reagan thought it was a great idea to assault Grenada. Operation Fury it was called. The farcical stunt killed 19 American invaders, at least three in a Blackhawk helicopter crash and others in friendly-fire incidents.
That's what came to mind reading about Trump's Venezuelan adventure, wherein a Chinook gets shot three times while buzzing Caracas, the flight leader takes one in the leg, and the whole thing nearly goes sideways1.
“The second you have a U.S. soldier killed or captured, it changes the political calculus,” Mr. Ackerman said. “So it’s extremely risky to base a foreign policy around these types of operations. You can’t keep stepping up to the craps table and never expect to throw a losing roll.” - Ibidem
On the Ukraine file, Andrew's writing about the intelligence shuffle at SBU and GUR, working the angle that Z's sidelining popular generals ahead of possible elections. Actually, no—according to clientele at Tootsie Club, where foreign flaks should cultivate reliable sources. The article reminds me of disinfo appearing in zn.ua remarking that Financial Times flaks obvi don’t understand what they are writing about when in comes to ultra-competitive Ukraine-style politics2.
Питання тільки в тому, чи розуміє це тепер уже колишній начальник ГУР Кирило Буданов. Видання Financial Times дуже помиляється3, стверджуючи, нібито Зеленський місяць умовляв Буданова очолити його офіс. Це не так. Буданов хотів цього статусу. І ті самі 12 пунктів, які він приніс президенту, — пряме підтвердження цього4.
So: helicopters shot up over Caracas, tankers seized in international waters, Russian submarines playing escort, generals reshuffled in Kyiv, peacekeeping forces sketched on napkins in Paris, and Moscow forming divisions it can't properly staff or equip. The craps table's getting crowded, the dice keep rolling, and nobody's figured out yet that the house always wins. It's not entirely outside the arena of the possible that someone will notice before the next Chinook goes down, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.
A Close Call for U.S. Commandos and an Emboldened Trump. As a damaged U.S. helicopter struggled to stay aloft over Venezuela’s capital, the success of the entire operation hung in the balance (The New York Times, January 7, 2026)
Reshuffle at Ukraine’s Intelligence Agencies Draws Criticism. Some ask whether the shake-up risks disrupting the agencies’ operations and is political in nature (The New York Times, January 7, 2026)
Volodymyr Zelenskyy overhauls Ukraine’s security apparatus. Ukrainian president appoints military intelligence boss as his chief of staff ahead of meeting on security guarantees (The Financial Times, January 5, 2026)
