The Guardian has already published its 100 day chronicle of the war, breaking the bloody mess down into four phases:
invasion,
bogged down
retreat and reorientation
after Mariupol.
I see it differently1.
We’re only in the beginning of Phase 3, which will last for months, maybe years. It will be the most deadly and depressing part of fascist Russia’s genocidal campaign.
Unfortunately, Tiger Team has poor insight into the capacity of Ukraine to absorb additional military assistance and how much of it2. Accurately discerning the mental amplitudes of Ukraine’s leaders is another key assessment that should be made.
No one should pretend functioning democratic institutions exist. It should be one of the primary tasks of the newly installed U.S. ambassador to keep the president’s fuckpigs in line when they get out of it, which is often.
Phase 2 Ends. Front Kick to the Face (May 8, 2022)
Day 6, Phase 3. Unbounded irrationality (May 14, 2022)