Day 43, Phase 2
Whiny Legionnaires
The just-in-time delivery and deployment of ultra-light 155mm field howitzers on the battlefield in Donbas doesn’t bode well for the longevity of tens of thousands of invading Russian soldiers. It’s an expensive — about $700,000 — gadget that shoots guided M982 Excalibur rounds with a range of up to 57 kilometers.
More good news:
Apropos of yesterday1, this translates to:
The Ukrainian counteroffensive north and east of Kharkiv city secured further gains in the last 24 hours and may successfully push Russian forces out of artillery range of Kharkiv in the coming days. Ukrainian forces captured several settlements north and east of Kharkiv in the last 24 hours, reducing the ability of Russian forces to threaten Ukraine’s second-largest city. This Ukrainian operation is developing into a successful, broader counteroffensive—as opposed to the more localized counterattacks that Ukrainian forces have conducted throughout the war to secure key terrain and disrupt Russian offensive operations. Ukrainian forces are notably retaking territory along a broad arc around Kharkiv rather than focusing on a narrow thrust, indicating an ability to launch larger-scale offensive operations than we have observed so far in the war (as Ukrainian forces predominantly retook the outskirts of Kyiv following Russian withdrawals rather than in a major counteroffensive). The willingness of Ukrainian forces to concentrate the forces necessary for this scale of offensive operations, rather than deploying these available forces to defenses in eastern Ukraine, additionally indicates the Ukrainian military’s confidence in repelling ongoing Russian operations to encircle Ukrainian forces in the Severodonetsk area. While Ukrainian forces are unlikely to directly threaten Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izium (as they run further to the east of recent Ukrainian advances), Ukrainian forces may be able to relieve Russian pressure on Kharkiv and possibly threaten to make further advances to the Russian border.
Question for Fred: How many counterattacks equals a counteroffensive?
Not everyone is happy, tho.
CNN, as expected.
LtCol Rip Rawlings sounnds depressed and a little lost.
These legionnaires would benefit from some ibogaine and more opsec training. Maybe a pep talk with Malcom, Andy or Eira would lift their spirits. Other solutions might include more PT, less gear, longer runs and a healthier diet. Even James, who turned an ankle, is in low spirits.
Which brings me to retired US Army Maj. Gen. Mike Repass, who blurted out the same gripes as Doc, Rat and Shadow.
[Ukraine’s] military equipment supply business is personalized as opposed to professionalized: The senior leadership establishes the distribution priorities and, from what I could observe, those priorities are not based on an understanding of consumption rates, or of future operations or objective data. It's based on commander of brigade X or sector Y calling and saying, "Hey, I need 27 Javelin missiles." So, it's highly personalized, and that is not how to run wartime logistics. What should be going on is there should be an understanding of what the consumption rates are on important things like fuel, ammunition, batteries.
Last time I checked, Mike was the Chief Executive Officer of Able Global Solutions, LLC, a private military company looking to sponge up U.S taxpayer dollars. No thanks, Mike. Tootsie Club is on to you.
It’s a prelude for what will occur in Russia-occupied regions in southern Ukraine during the coming weeks, months and, hopefully, not years. Day 42, Phase 2. Counteroffensive (May 6, 2022)