Val @nytimes asks in her headline whether Lukashenko is “the one big winner” of the Kremlin-Wagner clash1. The answer, of course, is no.
The article quotes a bunch of Belarusian ex diplomats I don’t know, have never met and hopefully will never encounter, including Pavel Latushka, who at the very end of the article makes the following observation about the presidents of Belarus and Russia.
Actually, no. Lukashenko and Putin are not Siamese twins. They can — and would prefer — to live without each other. It’s two bodies, one head. The fall of one does not mean the political death of the other.
Never end an article with a quote, especially if it’s bullshit.
The sledgehammer part of Val’s story, a symbol of war crimes committed by Russian invaders, used publicly and without trial to smash in the skulls of Prigozhin’s adversaries, is conspicuously absent. Lukashenko has glorified the tool in his own propaganda, a fact she blithely ignores.
In other news, practicing Russian philosopher Vladimir Pastukhov observes that popular support for Russia’s president is, er, in short supply.
While people for the second day savor the lack of support for Yevgeny Prigozhin (no one from the military joined his side, no mass demonstrations for him were observed), they neglect unfairly Russia’s other "not most popular politician."
Putin is Russia. He is Commander-in-Chief. The King. The one and only unanimous choice of the people. Unreplaceable. No Putin - no Russia. But when the convoy of tanks drove towards him, on ordinary roads, through large cities there were no reports of popular protests. In Moscow, young people did not flock to barricades to defend him. In Rostov, there were no attempts to eliminate at least one Wagnerite. People at the picket did not confront the man Putin had declared an enemy and a traitor.
Perhaps Prigozhin did not have popular support, except from his troll factories. But now we know for sure that Putin also can recruit Internet fighters from the streets for his protection, and even then - on orders from the administration. This knowledge is valuable. It was worth staging the mutiny just for the sake of it.
One Big Winner of Kremlin-Wagner Clash? The Dictator Next Door. The strongman leader of Belarus, a dependable ally of Vladimir Putin’s, may see a chance to rebrand himself as a statesman (The New York Times, June 25, 2023)