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Day 5, Phase 2
As we attempted to point out diplomatically on Day 18 (Fred's Non-predictive Intelligence Floppery), Putin remains an irrational actor who is less well-grounded in reality than most world leaders. “Bounded rationality” is irrelevant for explaining the Russian leader’s decisions or actions.
This might explain my skepticism about the prospects for a ceasefire in the foreseeable future. The chatter in Istanbul yesterday reminded me of Tarkovsky’s final movie, The Sacrifice, specifically the bewildered reaction of the witch after the protagonist puts a gun to his temple.
“Don’t kill us.”
The jet fighters return… They make love…. And float above the bed.
So the story goes.
Ibrahim and Leonid produced this excellent breakdown of the “Turkey Talks.”
Some 17,300 Russian soldiers have not died in vain during the further invasion of Ukraine, according to the proposed terms for ending the bloody mess.
As a result of Putin’s special operation, Russia and Ukraine:
agree to talk about the status of Crimea for the next 15 years. Before the invasion, Russia said there was nothing to discuss.
agree that NATO weapons, which were not in Ukraine, will not be in Ukraine.
agree that Ukraine will accelerate EU integration and receive financial assistance.
agree that Ukraine will receive NATO-like security guarantees from United States, Germany, France, Israel, Turkey, et cetera, without paying.
What Ukraine experts are tweeting:
We should all be nicer to Ukraine experts. I try, but without much success. The same goes for Ze’s friend Sean, who threatened to “smelt” his golden Oscar but hasn’t, yet, or Nadya (@pussyriot), who is raising awareness about Ukraine by posting excerpts of Yuval’s monologues and minting NFTs.