Key takeaways.
The transition of the war to a positional form leads to its prolongation and carries significant risks for both the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the state as a whole. In addition, it is beneficial to the enemy, who is trying in every possible way to reconstitute and increase its military power.
To get out of the positional form at the current stage of warfare, first of all, it is necessary to: gain air superiority; breach mine barriers in depth; increase the effectiveness of counter-battery and electronic warfare; create and prepare the necessary reserves. It should be taken into account that the widespread use of information technology in military affairs and the rational organization of logistics support play a significant role in finding a way out of the positional form of warfare. The need to avoid transitioning from a positional form to a manoeuvrable one necessitates searching for new and non-trivial approaches to break military parity with the enemy. — MODERN POSITIONAL WARFARE AND HOW TO WIN IN IT (UDC 355, November 1, 2023)
Last time I checked,Ukraine:
had not gained air superiority,
is still unable to breach mine barriers in depth,
had not increased the effectiveness of counter-battery and electronic warefare,
and had not created or prepared necessary reserves.
Unfortunately, Uncle Joe’s words during his SOTU address don’t correspond with Team USA’s actions. That feeds skepticism.
We are incapable of winning the war with Russia without lots of help. The only way to avoid strategic defeats on the battlefield (e.g. losing control of more regions) is for Ukraine’s friends to provide lots of assistance.
Quickly.
Ukraine has not received enough hardware to even maintain current positions. If nothing changes, the degradation of defensive positions will continue and accelerate.
Will Ukraine’s friends step up or not?
We don’t pay much attention to what Emmanual and Olaf say. Today, only Team USA has the wherewithal to assist quickly and effectively, but American politicians can’t seem to get their act together. The probability that Z will convince Uncle Joe and Republican lawmakers to act forcefully and decisively deminishes daily.
That means we are stuck in the situation outlined in former Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny’s 9-page essay.1”