The problem is not that Putin has formulated impossible conditions for a ceasefire, but that he has said them out loud. Now any deviation from them is a relative defeat. This means more "hardcore" is in store. And, in this case, negotiations will turn out to be just another scam for Western suckers. — Volodymyr Pastukhov
Putin’s conditions for ceasefire and negotiations, as per his 90-minute rant on Friday:
Ukrainian troops should be completely withdrawn from the territory of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions,
Ukraine's commitment not to join NATO,
Neutral, non-aligned, non-nuclear status of Ukraine,
All Western sanctions against Russia should be lifted.
Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry issued this:
Putin’s manipulative statements only confuse people. He does not seek peace, but to divide the world.
G7 Apulia Leaders’ Ukraine-heavy Communiqué is here.
Samuel Charap, a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation who has called for exploring talks, said Putin’s position appeared firm1.
“What we know for sure is that the declared public position has hardened,” Mr. Charap said. “That doesn’t mean that necessarily, if they [Putin and Zelenskyy] were to sit down, they wouldn’t budge from this.”
The psychological portrait of the leader of Russia, the country it has been taboo to shell or bomb (because that would risk retaliation and direct confrontation) is flawed, because Putin decided more than a decade ago that Russia was ready for retaliation and confrontation. Putin is not looking today for a reason, but for a justification, a pretext, for even more killing based on the decision he made then.
Sam makes the same mistake as ISW experts/analysts did five years ago.
Deterrence is extremely likely to continue to work against Putin, who is a rational actor without the kinds of apocalyptic visions that might lead another leader to opt for annihilation in pursuit of some delusional greater good. — Institute for the Study of War, June 2019
I see Politico has ended its article about the Ukraine Peace Summit in a quote, so I’ll reproduce it below.
It [the summit] is about “how allies should respond and provide aid for Ukraine until it gains an advantage on the front and will be ready to negotiate from a stronger position,” Fraser concluded2.
Fraser is Callum Fraser, a Research Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). His insititute says on its about page that it has engaged in forward thinking for more than two decades.
Wonderful. Never end an article with a quote.
And, finally, Yuriy posts this video from the front around Lyptsi in Kharkiv region.
Putin Makes Cease-Fire Offer With Sweeping Demands on Ukraine’s Territory. Ukraine denounced the offer, saying that Mr. Putin was “afraid of real peace.” The Russian leader made the remarks one day before a peace summit organized by Kyiv (The New York Times, June 15, 2024) Sam is a Putin apologist and widely detested in Ukraine. Some might regard him as a Western sucker.
Ukraine wants peace but can’t trust Russia. One thing is clear ahead of this weekend’s peace summit — everyone wants the peace that best fits their interests (Politico, June 14, 2024)
You missed something obvious. No-one calls for a ceasefire when they are winning. This is Putin telling the world 'I am losing. I gambled on 3 days to Kiev. Now I am bleeding out. Please give me time to get my breath back'. Lets refer Winston Churchill. This is not the end. This is not the beginning of the end. This is the end of the beginning. Now the Orc killing starts. Give Ukraine the weapons, it has the will, the motivation, the injury to be repared. Not repaired, repared like in reparation. Orcs will pay, and they will pay for generations. The sins of the father...