Day 9, Phase 3
Explosion-prone macroeconomics
The Russian invasion part of this bloody mess is rapidly coming to a close as Ukraine’s defenders, including Ken and the younger generation of Det-A deadbeats, hunt down and vaporize demoralized orcs in eastern regions of the country. Liberating areas in the south, where Russian invaders early in the campaign dug in without much, if any, resistance, will be the focus of counterattacks and panicky retreat during the upcoming months.
Why Ukraine did not defend Kherson region in late February is another story.
The modern battlefield is a place for soldiers who are properly kitted up and know what they’re doing. Just ask Putin and his generals. Russia’s army failed spectacularly to accomplish any of its military objectives. In other words, they lost.
Whether or not Ukraine can absorb additional assistance, military and financial, and how much of it, remains one of the biggest questions for Tiger Team, which says it has more insight on the Russian side of the equation than on the Ukrainian side1.
Who, exactly, are Tiger Team’s most valued sources of information about the experiment underway in Ukraine remains top secret codeword WHATEVER, not revealed without SCI access. Sources may not have been identified or even exist. For all we know, it could be a DNI wild goose chase using AI.
There’s been lots of talk lately about refreshing, reconstituting — maybe even reinventing — Ukraine’s export-driven economy. The plan, if it exists, is either a work in progress or a disaster in the making, depending on whether you think the speed of economic growth trumps the choice of the social-oriented Leftist taxation system supported by populist Servant of the People members of parliament (the largest faction).
Which brings me to Servant of the Peoples chief fiscalist Danylo Hetmantsev, chairman of the Rada’s committee on finance, tax and customs policy, who yesterday announced on Telegram the creation of the National Council that will include world renowned economists.
Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Professor of Economics, University of California, Berkeley
Tymofiy Milovanov, President of the Kyiv School of Economics, Associate Professor at the University of Pittsburgh
Francis Fukuyama, Professor at Stanford University, Director of the Master's Program in International Politics
Michael McFaul, Professor of Political Science at the Center for Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law at Stanford University
Matteo Patrone, EBRD Director for Eastern Europe and the Caucasus
Arup Banerjee, World Bank Regional Director for Eastern Europe
Vladyslav Rashkovan, Deputy Executive Director of Ukraine at the IMF
Ivan Miklós, former Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Finance, Minister of Economy in the Governments of Slovakia
Yuriy Vitrenko, Chairman of the Board of Naftogaz of Ukraine.
Hetmantsev said a company from the top three global companies in strategic consulting would also be represented.
The news came days after bizarre comments about the future of the country’s economy made by Ukraine’s finance minister for the Economist.
Serhiy Marchenko for the Economist2:
“If the war lasts more than another ‘three or four months,’ painful measures will be needed, involving huge tax rises and swinging spending cuts. The real fear is that what has become in recent years a fairly market-driven, freewheeling economy might see a wave of nationalizations, undoing years of hard-fought progress.”
It will be hard for Ukraine’s economy to sustain a long war. Economist (May 14, 2022)