Day 900

The most obvious thing

Photo c/o abdymok

With only hours remaining until Day 901, it’s helpful to revisit our timeline from Day 190¹:

People unfamiliar with Ukrainians should recall that in February 2014 protesters in Kyiv were digging up the brick sidewalks so they had something to throw at riot police. Not exactly Occupy Wall Street.

The strategy of the indirect approach should not come as a surprise.

Photo c/o abdymok

Sir Captain Liddell Hart argued frontal assaults and massive showdowns should be avoided. He said to defeat the enemy, one must first knock him off balance.

In war, the chief incalculable is the human will, which manifests itself in resistance, which in turn lies in the province of tactics. Strategy has not to overcome resistance, except from nature. Its purpose is to diminish the possibility of resistance, and it seeks to fulfil this purpose by exploiting the elements of movement and surprise².

In September 2022, Ukraine’s former Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny discussed at length the enemy’s center of gravity, leaving aside the issue of whether it is appropriate to link Hart’s concept to a certain area or region at the strategic level³. He only noted that it is the source of mental and physical power, strength, and resistance – something that Clausewitz called "the hub of all power and movement, on which everything depends." Attacking “it” is — or should be — the focus of all operations.... the point at which all our energy should be directed.¹"

Unfortunately, Z didn’t take the advice at the time and the policy of head-on incrementalism forced on Ukraine by its western arms suppliers prevailed.

That is, until recently.

Tim at CNN writes an article about the Kursk incursion, titled Doing the least obvious thing: Ukraine embarrasses Putin with surprise assault on southern Russia.

Some might argue that Ukraine has done the most obvious thing, finally.

1. Day 190. Pivot (September 1, 2022)

2. Перспективи забезпечення воєнної кампанії 2023 року: український погляд (Ukrinform, September 7, 2022)

3. Strategy: The Indirect Approach, A Hart, B.H.L., 1954, I Praeger, p. 189