Day 928
Tree Trimming with Det-chord
No one is interested in Z’s beseechments, except maybe Sean Penn. The president has discredited himself too many times to be taken seriously. His authoritative charisma might still influence some western leaders, but we are sick of it here.
Our big intellectual project is to try to figure out when and why and how and what variables Ukraine can dial up and dial down to generate better governance and better military outcomes. We have very highly contingent hypotheses with some bits of evidence for the case involving the supreme commander-in-chief, who appears to have lost his mind.
It's hard work empirically and it calls for very different sorts of tools, including heavy econometric quantitative sorts of evidence, but also qualitative evidence from spending years talking with foreign agents in Tootsie Club and observing communities and trying to get qualitative sources of information on things like why some manage to govern themselves well or badly.
At the micro level, like in Semyhory, villagers can solve collective action problems around the agricultural cycle and crop rotation. But on the macro level, in local administrations and on the national public level, the country’s predicament looks hopeless under Z.
Ukraine’s new Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha far exceeds 5,000 characters in his rambling Facebook post outlining priorities.
The number one task for Ukrainian diplomacy - from the ambassador to the attaché - is to ensure Ukraine's defense capability. Weapons, weapons, weapons.
This is both the implementation of already allocated packages and the shortening of the time gap between announcements and arrivals at the front, which the President constantly emphasizes. This is also the achievement of new agreements. Cementing long-term obligations. An undoubted priority is also the removal of all artificial restrictions on the supply of Western weapons and their use on the territory of the Russian Federation. There should be no restrictions on the exercise of the right to self-defense.
The Defense Ministry, aka the Ministry of Chaos — which under Z failed spectacularly to prepare for the invasion — has for more than two years been unable to organize food procurement, forced conscription, fall-back defensive fortifications, production and delivery of drones, EW kits, et cetera. Our crybaby President’s Office, meanwhile, has exceeded constitutional grants of authority to the detriment of the war effort in general.
Forming a coalition government of national unity is one way out of the mess, but Z has been unwilling to share the spotlight or power. He wants all the applause. The invention and spread of narratives about Ukraine’s top cops defending the capital from Kadyrov’s assassins is, er, a pathetic harbinger of future self-serving tales.
I just listened to Bill (CIA) and Richard (MI6) one-hour chit chat with Roula at FT. The spy chiefs mention repercussions for Iran should it provide Russia with short-range ballistic missiles, which have already been delivered.
Much more interesting is Oleksandr’s story. Maybe translate it into English and share with CIA and MI6 operatives who are helping us so hard.
That way we can avoid future misunderstandings about Z, Operation Avenue and the gigantic mess we are still in1.
Drones in my Bones. March 11, 2021