unfortunately, z is part of our problem. he will present a secret victory plan next week that team usa won’t agree to and then use the refusal as an excuse to justify agreeing to a wacko peace deal w/ putin. — a conclusion reached last week messaged to a friend.
A national government incapable of organizing the purchase and delivery of more than 50 Mavic 3 Pro drones a month to its units fighting along our 750-kilometer front line, er, can dream up as many victory plans as it wants, but partners won’t take it — or its plans — seriously.
In other words, disorder.
Looking on the bright side, Z says the provision of drones is a “strategic priority.”
One million drones. 1 Gigawatt of electricity. Fall-back defensive fortifications. Forced conscription. The Kursk bridgehead. Long-range missiles. These are all parts of our victory plan.
Jamie at Politico cites two unnamed “top military commanders” blabbing about their reticence to invade Russia’s Kursk region, saying former Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny had opposed the op1.
And here is David at The Washington Post wondering if Ukraine is pooping out2.
Bitching about the lack of drones might be considered treason, but if Ukraine is fighting “a ceaseless drone war” then Kyiv and its partners should be able, at least, to provide enough of them. The reason Ukraine does not have enough soldiers is because Z told us there was no reason to mobilize more. As regards attrition as the sine qua non of this war, we are reminded of the mechanism by which enemy disorganization and ineffectiveness are measured: the change of entropy.
Our entropy-based model shows how much information Jamie and David are missing3.
Military forces are trained — and required — to act in a cohesive and organized manner. In conflict, they are subject to various pressures that create disorganization. In Ukraine’s entropy-based warfare paradigm, levels continue to rise but have not reached maximum level.
It’s nuts that editors of foreign media outlets operating in Ukraine continue to push the send button on articles based soley on anonymous high-ranking military sources.
Ukraine is bleeding out. It cannot fight forever. Supporting Ukraine “as long as it takes” does not match the reality of this conflict (The Washington Post, September 15, 2024)
For example, if someone wanted to know where I am in Ukraine and I tell them somewhere near the Dnipro river, they have lots of entropy regarding my location, because the river more than 2,000 kilometers long. It would still take quite a bit of information to pin it down. If instead I said in zipcode 01034, they still don’t know exactly where I am, but the entropy is lower because they would have more information, because less information would be missing.