Exhibit 1 is the sad novelist delicately picking his nose while talking on my telephone, his scuffed-up tac boots crossed up under a coffee table outside Zig Zag. This is authentic behavior: the nouveau philosophe acting like he is a jorno. At least I assume that's what he's doing. He glances up at me and then continues his picking and his conversation. "... in this country!" he shouts into the receiver. It's a joke. He is talking to his agent about the war. Much laughter. He puts something in the ashtray.
The wretched, horrid, refills-not-for-free million-word article appearing yesterday in The Washington Post is Exhibit 2.
Like Kennan, proponents of a new containment believe the West today has few levers to influence the Kremlin. They call for broadening contacts with Moscow on issues such as arms control while increasing Western military production and Europe’s capacity to defend itself, boosting aid to Ukraine and offering the country a place in the European Union. Some also want to give training and weapons to vulnerable nations, including Georgia and Moldova1.
Proponents of a new containment. The nightmare of the Soviet Union finally went out of business around 1984, clumsily, weakly, to the sound of state-owned everything imploding. The war machine that emerged three decades later from the wreckage should be obliterated, not contained.
Masha’s Comparing Pathways to Peace in Ukraine paper is Exhibit 3.
Russia’s inclusion of language concerning sanctions relief into the draft treaty suggests that this point will also need to be addressed. As would Ukraine’s desire to join the European Union. Finally, the logistics of implementing a ceasefire, including mechanisms for monitoring and enforcing a truce, may need more prominent consideration that they received in the early negotiations. As Samuel Charap of RAND and Sergey Radchenko of John Hopkins note in their astute analysis of the March 2022 peace talks, “although the parties’ attempt to resolve long-standing disputes over the security architecture offered the prospect of a lasting resolution to the war and enduring regional stability, they aimed too high, too soon. They tried to deliver an overarching settlement even as a basic cease-fire proved out of reach.2”
The last time I checked, Sam was as thick as two short planks, anchored in the Fiona Hill school of off-ramp dreams.
Exhibit 4.
In the eastern Ukrainian region of Donetsk, there’s a real danger of a Russian breakthrough if Putin’s forces take the logistical hub of Pokrovsk. Ukrainians are exhausted. Trauma lurks just beneath the surface. Several times I saw the eyes of tough soldiers grow damp when they mentioned their fallen comrades. About half the country’s energy infrastructure has been destroyed. This winter will be cruel. Meanwhile, the west continues to hesitate and hold back, fearful of escalation – led (if that’s the word) in this regard by the US president, Joe Biden.3
Timothy, like David, moaning about Ukraine bleeding out4.
Our third white male is Professor Snyder, who says unpredictability is the second form of freedom. He provides Exhibit 5. (Toss up between Timothy or Dee from Twisted Sister).
This sounds like a takeaway from Sean Penn, whose forays into Ukraine have produced unexpected consequences and bad propaganda.
The fourth paragraph of Joshua’s article is Exhibit 6, along with the crazy part about Z thinking Ukraine is fighting on behalf of the West.
The infantilism of Ukraine’s leader is the opposite of endearing.
Pivot to Scranton.
The pink blob continues to move in our direction.
Russian KIA estimates have been especially high the last couple of days.
Washington and the West struggle for a way forward with Putin’s Russia. In the United States and Europe, there is growing uncertainty about how to counter Putin’s aggression without stoking a direct conflict with Russia (The Washington Post, September 20, 2024)
The Talks That Could Have Ended the War in Ukraine. A Hidden History of Diplomacy That Came Up Short—but Holds Lessons for Future Negotiations (Foreign Affairs, April 16, 2024)
Zelenskyy has a gamechanging plan to win peace. For it to work, Biden must back it – fast (The Guardian, September 21, 2024)
Ukraine is bleeding out. It cannot fight forever. Supporting Ukraine “as long as it takes” does not match the reality of this conflict (The Washington Post, September 15, 2024)