We left off yesterday pointing out that it is a very bad idea to compare our predicament to Russian roulette, because the probability of surviving games of chance do not depend on what the player may think or do1. Ending the war intact, on the other hand, depends entirely on decisions people make and actions they take. In other words, when Ukraine makes it out of this mess it will be because of the choices people made, not game theory.
Proposals to ensure our survival are part of a Victory Plan, advertised in Kyiv and presented by Z in the United States, which contains “a clear vision of the steps to be taken to ensure a just and lasting peace.2”
MR MILLER: [T]he Victory Plan that Ukraine presented is not just a question of actions that Ukraine would take. It’s a question of actions that other countries around the world would take as well. Ukraine hasn’t detailed that Victory Plan publicly yet so I’m not going to do so from here. It’s appropriate for them to do so. But we took that plan, we reviewed it, we saw a number of productive steps in it. We’re going to engage with them about it. — US State Department briefing, October 2, 2024
Andriy Yermak, head of the President’s Office, says the “clear vision” is secret.
“Anything that becomes public is heard not only in our country, it is heard by the enemy. And that is why, of course, some details of this plan are classified. But, you know, it is important to see this plan executed on enemy territory. Ukrainians are very smart and often understand the situation better than politicians” — TSN, October 2, 2024
No, I don’t know.
Optimism demands that we not try to extract meaning from our scanty, probably misconception-laden existing understanding of the president’s partially classified vision on how best to proceed. Maybe we should place emphasis on correcting deadly mistakes and not repeating them.
Which brings me to Yuriy’s podcast about the fubar evacuation of the 72nd Mechanized Brigade from Vuhledar on Sunday.
I don’t think a zillion platoons of Petraues’ CIA sneaker operatives can identify and report all the reasons for this entirely avoidable screw-up.
Concludes Vitaliy in ZN’s after-action review3:
Unfortunately, we have already lost Ocheretyne and Zhelanne, Novohrodivka and Hrodivka, Karlivka and Ukrainsk for the same reasons. But we have no right to repeat the same mistakes in Hirnyk and Tsukuryn, Selydove, Kurakhove, Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk.
I wanted this post to have a happy ending, but I just noticed that Z again last night attempted to conflate what’s going on involving Israel with Ukraine.
"Ukraine has long been saying to all its neighbours, to all its major partners, that we need to cooperate; we need to shoot down Shahed drones, shoot down missiles together, and especially in areas close to NATO countries. This is absolutely possible. Every time in the Middle East, during brutal Iranian strikes, we see the international coalition acting together."
There are key differences between the protagonists and antagonists in the Middle East, Russia and Ukraine, one being that, unlike the Islamic State, Putin has a squad of moron lawmakers in the US Congress who are eager and willing to regurgitate Moscow’s talking points.
Same goes for the Poisoned Drink Game.
Вугледар. Перші висновки (ZN, September 30, 2024)