Ignore Analysts

Stay away from experts

With scant options in Ukraine, U.S. and allies prepare for long war (WAPO, June 17, 2022)

Reading about what people think about the war you are in is annoying, because most already discredited themselves too often to take seriously. Non-predictive intelligence floppery has been а hallmark of this bloody mess, thanks in part to the clowns at WAPO, ISW and Rand, where Russia and Ukraine expertise is, er, lacking.

My all-time favorite bogus key assessment belongs to Fred, who, in a 35-page report in December 2021, footnotes himself from a 59-page report from June the same year¹: