Stay away from experts
Reading about what analysts say about the war you are in is annoying, because most already discredited themselves too often to take seriously. Non-predictive 501©(3) intelligence floppery has been а hallmark of the bloody mess, thanks in part to the clowns at ISW and Rand, where Russia expertise is, er, lacking.
My all-time favorite bogus key assessment belongs to Fred, who in a 35-page report in December 2021 footnotes himself from another 59-page report from June the same year1:
Sam at Rand — one of the analysts quoted in the WAPO article talking about “scant options” for the US and Ukraine — has been another serial provider of unhelpful insight2.
The moral of the Russia invasion of Ukraine story continues to elude Fred and Sam at ISW and Rand. Looking on the positive side, maybe they will glean new insight into the decision-making of fascist Russia’s megalomaniacal ruler from yesterday’s one-hour rant in St. Petersburg.
Strategic Misdirection: An Alternate Framework for Understanding Russia’s Play in Ukraine. ISW (December 21, 2021)
Mitigating Challenges to U.S.-Russia Strategic Stability. Rand (February 17, 2022)