Ignore Analysts
Stay away from experts
Reading about what people think about the war you are in is annoying, because most already discredited themselves too often to take seriously. Non-predictive intelligence floppery has been а hallmark of this bloody mess, thanks in part to the clowns at WAPO, ISW and Rand, where Russia and Ukraine expertise is, er, lacking.
My all-time favorite bogus key assessment belongs to Fred, who, in a 35-page report in December 2021, footnotes himself from a 59-page report from June the same year1:
Sam at Rand — one of the analysts quoted in the WAPO article talking about “scant options” for the US and Ukraine — has been another serial provider of unhelpful insight2.
The moral of the Russia invasion of Ukraine story continues to elude Fred and Sam at ISW and Rand. Looking on the positive side, maybe they will glean new insight into the decision-making of fascist Russia’s megalomaniacal ruler from yesterday’s one-hour rant in St. Petersburg.
Strategic Misdirection: An Alternate Framework for Understanding Russia’s Play in Ukraine. ISW (December 21, 2021)
Mitigating Challenges to U.S.-Russia Strategic Stability. Rand (February 17, 2022)