Phase 2 Ends
Front kick to the face
We are entertained today with several reports, starting with a bonkers article about how Tiger Team shares secrets with Kyiv and what retired CIA agents think about it. The last time I checked, carefully coordinated leakage has been a hallmark of Russia’s further invasion since at least January this year. That’s when William visited Ze in Kyiv and showed him Putin’s detailed plans to launch an all-out invasion1.
I also enjoyed the article by Emma and Vera about the ad hoc group of paramilitaries snooping around after sunsets in Kyiv.
Phase 1 ended on March 25, Day 30, after Putin failed to decapitate Kyiv2.
Phase 2 ended on May 8, 2022, Day 74, after Putin failed to conquer Donbas3.
Phase 3 will drag on until Ukraine is de-occupied.
Phase 4 will never end.
Our perception of time is based on our knowledge of change. No generic framework of how people consciously experience events exists, so we’ll continue to rely on first-hand accounts of Russia’s all-out invasion. Science, progress, humanism and reason did not prevent Putin from launching it, since he is not bound by rationality, and the pillars of the enlightenment are unlikely to prevent him from prolonging it.
Recall how Phase 2 began, with a comparison of the attempt to sink the ProPatria after the outbreak of war in a previously peaceful kingdom4. The ship’s name came from part IV of Ezra Pound's Hugh Selwyn Mauberley.
Some quick to arm,
some for adventure,
some from fear of weakness,
some from fear of censure,
some for love of slaughter, in imagination,
learning later . . .
some in fear, learning love of slaughter;
Died some, pro patria,
non " dulce " non " et decor " . . .
walked eye-deep in hell
believing in old men's lies, then unbelieving
came home, home to a lie,
home to many deceits,
home to old lies and new infamy;
usury age-old and age-thick
and liars in public places.
Daring as never before, wastage as never before.
Which brings me to Bertolt Brecht and Churchill, but that’s another story.
U.S. and allied non-permissive environment specialists have already landed in Kyiv and are scheming with indigenous commandos at Tootsie Club to liberate possible future oppressed residents of the capital. …Carousing is not only a key to Special Operations success but is also a great way to push your mind and body to new limits. Stay Out of Doorways. Tactical Athletics at Tootsie’s (January 12, 2022)
Head of Russia’s General Staff’s main operation administration declared the main tasks of the first stage of the operation have been carried out and announced a new main goal: the liberation of Donbas. Russia targets east Ukraine, says first phase over. BBC. (March 26, 2022)
Russia’s attempts to seize control of eastern Ukraine are doomed to fail, setting us up for Phase 3, which will start in early May. We don’t know yet when Phase 4 will start, since it depends on how much Russia destroys by then. Day 27, Phase 2. Phase 1 ended on March 25 (April 21, 2022)