Day 28, Phase 2
Buried by the Times
Some say that minus U.S. military assistance most Ukrainians would already be walking around drunk in their underwear, while others argue that we’ll be running sub-6 minute miles in bare feet before the start of Phase 4.
According to uncle Joe, we are nearing the end of Phase 2 of the war that Putin lost a month ago1. The U.S. president went out of his way to compliment media for their recent coverage of Russia’s invasion, especially the bits about war crimes and genocide.
While eight years of pro-Kremlin separatist brotherly nation bullshit may now be officially passé, not everyone is convinced, including Sam from Rand, whose outrageous claims to expertise remain on display.
John yesterday described new goodies paid for by U.S. taxpayers.
Looking on the bright side, thanks to Phoenix Ghost and Switchblade kamikaze drones, Russia’s defeat on the battlefield will become increasingly apparent over the next couple of weeks, leaving most of the summer for Phase 3 (mop-up military ops, de-occupation and the return of millions of refugees).
Keir analyzes Putin’s off-ramp possibilities.
We should probably remember that pre-invasion Ze was a zero and Ukraine was a sham democracy2. So, lots of hard work ahead.
Russia has lost the war, and the map above is misleading. The same goes for dozens of forecasts and studies published by Institute for the Study of War and Critical Threats over the six months leading up to the invasion. Day 18. Non-predictive Intelligence Floppery. (March 13, 2022)