Day 720

Playing the killjoy on Ukraine

As we approach the 10-year anniversary of the start of fascistic Russia’s genocidal war. it’s Trump, MAGA maggots, Elon, Hungary, Iran, Hamas, China, the Houthis, North Korea, Iran, Polish farmers, Slovakia, etc versus Ukraine.

Photo c/o ISW

I have been calculating the number of days we’ve been at war using perplexity.ai, which tells us that, as of February 20, 2024, some 3,653 days, or ten years, will have elapsed.

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The Good Republicans’ Last Stand. Will enough of Trump’s party finally be willing to stick up for Ukraine rather than follow his lead and bow to Russia? (The Atlantic, February 12, 2024)

David at The Atlantic continues chronicling attempts by MAGA maggots to delay further military assistance to Ukraine as Russian invaders press their attacks.

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Minus the black swans, practicing philosopher Volodymyr Pastukhov shares his baseline scenario after two years of total war¹:

1. The likelihood of Ukraine receiving adequate financial and military assistance from the United States and Europe in the next 6-9 months seems very low. The amount of assistance will constantly lag behind the size of Ukraine's needs for weapons and money. The gap at some point may become critical with, in general, significant absolute values. Ukraine’s benefactors will give a lot, but always less than necessary.

2. Against the backdrop of a shell shortage and financial famine, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are unlikely to be able to improve their positions at the front within the specified period. A change in military leadership is also unlikely to have a significant effect, since the people who replaced Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny did not fly from the moon, but are the second echelon of the same team. They are simply more accommodating. And vice versa, successes of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, even operational ones, are very likely for the same reasons.

3. Dissatisfaction with mobilization, indignation at the injustice of distribution of the “tax of war,” irritation from growing corruption in war conditions, disappointment from unfulfilled promises of “summer coffee on the Yalta embankment,” coupled with the weakening of Z’s legitimacy will most likely lead to his loss of power within the next 12 months. That is, unless Z himself does not dramatically change his political behavior. This, however, looks less and less likely, and, if he does, the president will be faced with other problems.

4. Regardless of whether Trump wins, his approach to resolving the Ukrainian crisis will most likely win in the United States. Both Ukraine and Russia will be put on notice. Ukraine will be told in confidence that no more financial and military assistance will be provided unless it begins peace negotiations in exchange for territorial concessions. Russia will also be informed that if the Kremlin does not stop the war after Ukraine refuses to liberate its territories by military means, the United States will “inundate” Ukraine with weapons, regardless of any Russian “red lines.”

5. Z likely won’t be able to afford to accept the offer of peace in exchange for territory, but his successor will likely be able to do so, and will receive the support of a war-weary population in the process. Putin, on the contrary, will most likely willingly accept this proposal with the idea that after a respite he will again take up the old ways and repeat aggression in direct or indirect (military coup in Kyiv) form at a time convenient for him.

6. A new war is not excluded, but a more likely scenario seems to be in which Putin’s hopes for a continuation of the banquet will not come true. History will no longer present him with such a chance, since “yesterday’s joke is no longer a joke.” Everyone already knows what to expect from him (hint: everything), so the West will now again live in anticipation of war and prepare for it. And this will be the best guarantee of peace. Just like in the famous saying.

7. After the truce in Europe, a “little ice age” will begin with an arms race, the Iron Curtain, a policy of containment and other “jokes” of the good old Cold War. This will continue at least until the moment when Putin leaves us in a political or physical sense, and most likely for some time after this happens.House Intel Chair Mike, who visited Kyiv a couple days ago, has said it is time for Team USA to stop dithering.

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‘We have to get this done’: A top House Republican pushes for Ukraine aid, stat.’ Intel Chair Mike Turner says he’s confident Speaker Mike Johnson will allow a vote sending new funding to Kyiv (Politico, February 12, 2024)

As of this writing, House Speaker Mike appears unlikely to floor the measure of his own volition, if and when it clears the Senate this week.

Photo c/o Haiyun Jiang (The New York Times)

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On the Ukrainian jacket, continued chaos and ineptitude.

The economy is wrecked, the courts are in shambles and the country’s law-enforcement agencies, which have regularly undermined the country’s defense capability by targeting the military or military-industrial complex enterprises, are hysterical. Yesterday, they served a notice of suspicion to an important functionary of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex, Serhiy Pashynskyy, whose contribution to the country's defense capability has been significant.

We will keep tabs on this foolishness.

1. Total war refers to the period following Russia’s all-out attempt to decapitate Kyiv, starting on February 24, 2022.