Day 764
Human uncertainty errata
Either you are running very far daily in your girlie sneakers with glued-up J-Frame(TM) pads. Or you are not.
During wind sprints this morning, we contemplated Z’s decision to re-boot Ukraine’s security apparatus. Conclusion: the attempt to reconfigure leadership in the National Security and Defense Council, Defense Ministry, Foreign Ministry, Interior Ministry, Armed Forces et cetera is unhelpful, maybe even pointless, at this stage of the war. It just creates more confusion and chaos. Maybe it would be better to focus on building defensive fortifications, buying lots of drones and mobilizing society to defend the country.
A quick peak at the State Budget implementation trend in 2023 shows revenues at all levels in 2023 amounted to UAH 3.1 trillion.The deficit covered by external financing is UAH 2.2 trillion, while total defense spending in 2023 amounted to UAH 2.1 trillion. We ended the year UAH 1.31 trillion, or $37 billion, short.
This just in from David and Julian:
This article is amusing for several reasons, the first being that David and Julian have repeatedly laundered pro-Russia, anti-Ukraine bullshit in The New York Times1.
Behavioralist/psychologist/economist David Kahneman has died.
David at The Atlantic has a nice obit2.
I am a big fan of Kahneman and Amos Tversky and their explanation of fallibility and self-delusion, so I’ll probably recognize I’m wrong about lots of things most of today.
Another expert on reflexivity and the human uncertainty principle is insecurity analyst George Soros, who during the 1990s enjoyed expounding at length about the subject.
Both Kahneman and Soros acknowledged their mistakes often, as we all should do.
Baffled by bullshit from the NYT (August 19, 2017)
Daniel Kahneman Wanted You to Realize How Wrong You Are. The late psychologist gave the world an extraordinary gift: admitting his mistakes (The Atlantic, March 27, 2024)