Day 938
Causal ambiguity paradox
Yesterday we discussed entropy-based warfare, concluding that levels of disorder in Ukraine continue to rise but have not yet reached maximum level1.
Entropy plays a crucial role in strategic and causal ambiguity, two distinct concepts that relate to uncertainty in decision-making and war planning, but which serve different purposes and contexts.
Strategic ambiguity is a deliberate choice to remain non-specific about certain policies or messages, enabling partners to interpret them in ways that align with their perspectives or interests. This can help avoid direct conflict and maintain flexibility in decision-making.
Causal ambiguity refers to the uncertainty surrounding the specific reasons behind success or failure, particularly in how various resources and capabilities contribute to advantage on the battlefield. The concept creates challenges for aggressors attempting to destroy your country.
High levels of entropy often prompt political leaders to adopt strategic ambiguity as a mechanism to cope with uncertainty. This explains why Z has been vague about his Victory Plan which can be later adapted to changing conditions without being constrained by rigid frameworks, such as the Constitution of Ukraine.
The interaction between entropy and causal ambiguity can create what is known as the causal ambiguity paradox, which refers to the dual nature of causal ambiguity in war management, highlighting its protective benefits while simultaneously posing challenges for proactive weapons procurement, like, for example, buying in advance enough Mavic 3 drones to repulse “meat assaults,“ the military tactic employed by Russian forces in in eastern Ukraine.
On that op-ed appearing in The Hill on September 172.
Brinksmanship is the practice of escalating tensions to the brink of disaster, with the intention of forcing an opponent to concede or back down. What the authors fail to recognize is that we passed over the brink more than two and a half years ago. We have been in post-disaster mode every since.
The realization of the simple fact that Putin might actually resort to nuclear bombs to subdue Ukraine has led to a result that was exactly the opposite of what Kremlin planners were counting on. That’s because what will happen cannot be avoided. If someone wants to kill himself, there’s little you can do to prevent it. An increasing number of western leaders are thinking that if armageddon is indeed inevitable, then why bother delaying it3.
As we noted on Day 471:
We are smack dab in the middle of a catastrophe of such magnitude that there is no long-term development scenario. Not one. Anyone who thinks there is plenty of time to think the mess through should have their head examined. We are at stage five of a four-stage disaster management response4.
Which brings me to TERCOM (Terrain Contour Matching)
TERCOM requires highly accurate topographic maps, which are owned by Team USA, used by Palantir and rented to the British military, sometimes.
No one wants to give Russian spies in Ukraine access to TERCOM datasets, which explains why Slovakian critical thinkers are taking selfies with Budanov and curious about “sneakers on the ground.”
Prišiel sa predstaviť aj novovymenovaný predstaviteľ NATO v Ukrajine Patrick Turner, s ktorým sme rýchlo zistili, že máme pár spoločných známych a mali sme tiež o čom rozprávať. Fakt, že NATO ani americká armáda v Ukrajine doteraz nemali styčných ľudí, bol pre mňa zarážajúci. Aj keď generál Petraeus povedal, že “ľudí tu máme, ale nie sú v uniformách”, teda že namiesto “boots on the ground” sú tam “sneakers on the ground”, usporiadanie, v ktorom sa tajné služby nevenujú výlučne svojej práci a robia vláde a armáde poštárov, bolo podľa mňa od začiatku nešťastné a dlhodobo neudržateľné.
Negotiate with Moscow to end the Ukraine war and prevent nuclear devastation. (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Donald Trump Jr., The Hill, September 17, 2024)
If you're taking advice from JFK Jnr and Donald Trump, you really are in trouble.